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2019/03/01 17:32
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Pig prices have continued to fall, and market analysis says it is currently in the down phase of the pig cycle. Then Xiaobian sums up the pig cycle time based on the change of pig price from 2003 to 2018. After reading it, you will know when the pig price will rise.

Supply and demand: retail investors are more active, but the willingness to stabilize prices in the north and south is very strong; demand recovery is still poor this week. In the northeast and south high-price zones, the willingness to price is strong, and the supply and demand game continues to ferment.

The pig price will fall again, and the Northeast pig food ratio will be the first to enter the red zone. At present, the price of pigs in Northeast China is a national depression. In particular, the price of pig food in Heilongjiang has dropped to 5.05:1 this weekend. According to the current market, the first to fall below the 5.0:1 regulation warning line is already doomed. This aspect indicates that the farmers' losses will deepen, and on the other hand, it indicates that the state may initiate regulation.

At present, the recovery of consumption is not strong, the situation of oversupply in the hog market continues, and the short-term hog price fluctuates or will continue. However, in the case of a slight easing of the contradiction between supply and demand of pigs in April, the trend of pig prices may change.

The five major factors affecting China's pig price are: trend factor, cycle factor, seasonal factor, sporadic factor, and monetary factor. Among them, the cyclical factor is the most important research content to judge the trend of pig price. With the rising trend of feed costs, labor costs and land costs, the focus of hog prices will continue to move upwards in the future. The third quarter of each year and the Spring Festival are the peak season for pork consumption, and the price of pigs will rise to varying degrees. Incidental factors such as epidemics and government regulation affect the marginal supply, which will lead to the extension of the cycle. The amount of money placed will affect the fluctuation of the pig cycle.

According to the analysis of pig price in 2003-2018, five rules are summarized:

1. The minimum period of pig price per year is basically concentrated in the first half of the year, and it is mainly concentrated in March and April, and then the price will rise. In 2008, March was the highest price in a year, but at the same time this node also became an inflection point for the downturn of pig prices; even in the first half of 2011, the overall price of pigs showed a rapid rise, still around March. The short-term decline in the price of pigs ushered in; 2. The second low period of pig prices per year is mainly concentrated in October and November; 3. The highest price of pigs per year, basically concentrated in the second half and after years, especially In August, September and January, even if the price is not the highest, it can guarantee the price is better at the profit point; 4. In most small cycles, the pig price goes from the trough to the peak, about Half a year; 5, 2004, 2008, 2011, 2016, respectively, the strongest rising segment of the four pig cycles, different from the small cycle, the pig price of the big cycle from the lowest valley to the highest peak, can rise strongly More than 1 year.

According to the above rules, Xiaobian boldly predicts the future trend of pig prices. 1. This new round of pig cycle starting from 2015 may last for at least 4~5 years, that is, from 2015 to 2019 or 2020 as a complete cycle. 2, according to the past rules, the end of the 2016 ~ cycle, the overall pig price will go downhill. The current cycle has gone through three years, and now the industry generally enters a loss. It is estimated that 2019 will be more serious than the loss in 2018. After 2018 and 2019 two years of production capacity, the pig price is likely to rebound in the 2019 Jedi, June 2020. A strong cycle is ushered in around. During this period, March to April is the most likely month to lose money. Every year in January and August to September will be a considerable profit point. 3. This round of pig price is basically in line with the rules of previous years. Pig farmers do not have to be too Worried, it is expected that the price of pigs will be dominated by low-level fluctuations in the short term, and the long-term gaze will be maintained. At most, it will last for 1-2 months, which will be warmer. In addition, as the pig-to-food ratio is nearing the warning line, the central government will start to store 10,000 tons of frozen meat. It can also play a positive role in stabilizing pig prices.

Attachment: March 28th pig price report - pig price rebounded for a short time, but the alarm has not been lifted yet

On March 28, 2018, the average daily average price of ternary, internal ternary, and miscellaneous goods in the mainstream market in China rose. The average daily price of pigs in the country was 10.02 yuan per kilogram, up 0.42% from yesterday. Today, the average price of ternary, internal ternary and domestic pigs in the country is as follows: 1) The average national sales price of ternary big pigs outside the mainstream market is 10.23 yuan per kilogram, up 0.48% compared with yesterday; 2) the three yuan in the mainstream market The average national sales price of pigs was 9.87 yuan per kilogram, up 0.34% compared with yesterday. 3) The average national sales price of large pigs in the mainstream market was 9.46 yuan per kilogram, up 0.31% from yesterday.

The analyst recommends:

Today, the rebound in pig prices has increased. In the northeast region, due to the low pig prices, farmers have a strong resistance and rebound. The rise in pig prices is always a very encouraging thing, but this does not change the fundamental situation of the current oversupply of commodity pigs. The contradiction between supply and demand is still outstanding and will continue to exist for a long time this year. Only when the national commodity piglet price is lower than 25 yuan / kg (according to the 20 kg piglet price standard), the industry's work to de-capacity will really open. At present, the average export price of 20 kilograms of commercial piglets in the country is still above 27 yuan / kg, still in a profitable state.

What we want to express is that, taking advantage of the slight improvement in the pig price trend in April-May, we must actively arrange for the large-scale commodity pigs to be released in time. Otherwise, in the blink of an eye, you will once again be pushed to the cusp of loss.

Source: Feed Industry Information Network