What factors will affect meat prices in 2016?
Lanzhou Evening News (reporter Wang Xingming Intern Wang Xiao) on February 24, the reporter visited the Lanzhou market to learn that the current market in Lanzhou, pork retail prices have risen to about 17 yuan*kg. On the same day, Gansu Price Monitoring Center issued an analysis report, saying that due to market supply and demand changes and other factors, the price fluctuation of live pigs in 2015 is more obvious.* Based on the analysis of supply, demand and cost, it is expected that the price of pigs will be high in 2016*
It is understood that the deproduction of live pigs is deeper and the tight supply situation is difficult to*fundamentally*ease*in the short term: after the rapid and substantial rise in pig prices last April, farmers began to increase pig feeding, but due to the long and profound adjustment of the production of swine, the market has been far-reaching, and farmers are more cautious in filling the feeding, and there is no large-scale phenomenon of feeding and expansion.*
In recent years, the diet of residents has become more and more diversified, the consumption of pork has been relatively reduced, and the consumption of alternatives such as beef, mutton, aquatic products and eggs has increased significantly.* In the peak season, the price of pigs is not rising or falling, indicating that seasonal and holiday factors are gradually weakening the price of pigs. In the context of the government's advocacy of thrift, containment of public funds and group consumption, the growth of pork consumption will remain weak in the coming period, and the demand for driving up the price of pork will not be enough.
Falling*breeding costs have a certain inhibitory effect on pig prices: since this year, domestic corn and soybean meal prices have continued to fall, and both fell to the lowest price in recent years. At the end of December last year, the purchase prices of corn and soybean meal in the major pig*breeding counties (cities) in China decreased by 15% and 22% respectively compared with the same period last year. The analysis shows that with the "double increase" of domestic grain output and import in recent years, the total domestic grain inventory has reached a historical high. In the case of inverted grain prices at home and abroad, the domestic market will be a process of de-stocking and returning to marketization for a period of time in the future. It is expected that the price of corn and soybean meal will remain a pattern of weakening oscillation in 2016. (Lanzhou Evening News)