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"Thousand yuan piglets" to reproduce the pig crazily fill the sow mode open?

2019/02/27 18:32
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This year's pork price is "much higher, nearly a third higher" than that of previous years.* Pork dealers in the wholesale market in*Xindi*Beijing told the first financial reporter that due to the rising price of meat, there were not many customers in the pork stall. "Ten yuan can't buy a kilo of meat, who eats it?"

Apart from the rising price of live pigs, the*reluctance to sell*is also one of the main reasons for the rising price of pork. Liu Tong, Minister of the market statistics department of Beijing new hair market, told reporters that when the slaughterhouse bought a pig, the price of large size pig was higher. In order to pursue high profits, pig farms should raise pigs from 110 kilograms of standard weight to 140~150 kilograms, which would prolong the breeding time for more than a month or even two months, resulting in a tighter supply of live pigs on the market.

However, statistics show that the price of pork has been callback in early March, but the price of live pigs is still on the way. Yang, "1000 yuan piglets" also reproduce the pig market. In this regard, the National Development and Reform Commission has recommended that pig farmers rationally judge the future price trend of live pigs, rationally arrange supplementary fe***s, and avoid excessive expansion of pig production capacity.

"Thousand yuan piglets" reproduce pig market

According to the average price changes of major food in 50 cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in early March, the price of hind leg meat was 29.79 yuan/kg and that of variegated meat was 30.61 yuan/kg. Compared with the latter half of February, they decreased by 0.6% and 0.7% respectively.

Pork terminal sales, although slightly cold, live pig prices are rising. Search pig network data show that in the second week of March, the average price of lean pork nationwide continued to rise. The average weekly price rose from 18.59 yuan/kg last week to 19.14 yuan/kg, up 64.43% from 11.64 yuan/kg in the same period last year. By March 21 this year, it had successfully broken through the historical high of 19.6 yuan/kg on June 22, 2011, reaching 19.7 yuan/kg, a new high.

In the piglet sale on the front of pig breeding, the monitoring data of pig net showed that the price of three yuan piglets rose sharply in the twelfth week of this year, reaching 46.56 yuan / kg, up 103.32% from 22.9 yuan / kg in the same period last year. In some areas, about 30 yuan of three yuan piglets have exceeded 1000 yuan, and the phenomenon of "thousand yuan piglets" has recurred to the pig market.

The national development and Reform Commission data showed that as of March 9th, the average factory price of hog across the country was 18.62 yuan per kilogram, up 52.8% over the same period last year. On the other hand, because of the steady decline in feed costs at the beginning of the year, the pig grain price ratio has reached 9.13:1, which is significantly higher than the breakeven point and has entered the yellow alert area. It is obvious that the whole hog culture is now showing a rise in pig prices and a decrease in feed costs, which is conducive to making up for the loss of pig farmers in the past few years.

The National Development and Reform Commission also indicated that the recent high price of live pigs, with restorative and compensatory characteristics, is the result of the adjustment of productivity adaptability caused by the low price of live pigs in the past three years, which is conducive to improving the economic benefits of farmers, mobilizing the enthusiasm of farmers, promoting the development of pig production and guaranteeing the market pork supply.

Crazy Ferry Sow Mode Open?The Ferry Ferry Ferry Ferry Ferry Ferry Ferry Ferry Ferry Ferry Ferry Ferry Ferry Ferry Ferry*

While the price of pig grain is at a relatively high level, the NDRC has also begun to guard against possible overfilling barriers, which may lead to excessive expansion of pig production capacity and the price of live pigs will soon fall into a downward path. Therefore, it is suggested that pig farmers rationally judge the future trend of pig prices, further enhance risk awareness and rationally arrange**supplementary railings.

中国生猪预警网首席分析师冯永辉也表示,如果“补栏千元仔猪”就像“养猪人拿起了骰子”,简直就是赌博的话,那么哄抢母猪就像是“养猪人拿起了刀子”,最终将革了自己的命。 Once the hog market is launched, the frenzied formula of sow frenzy will mean a timetable for the beginning of a cyclical decline, and will eventually enter the old way of "sow up to excess, and pig prices fall to losses".

Feng Yonghui said that from the current*sales*of dualistic sows in pig farms, it is true that they are booming. The timetable for cyclical declines has been set. Under the circumstance of breaking 900 yuan in the first profit, maybe nothing can stop the tide of enthusiasm to fill the fence. "But the truth of digging holes this year and burying them in the next year is clear to all, the more crazy we are, the more calm we need to be. At this moment, reason is more important than anything.

Who will hedge against soaring meat prices

Due to the rising pork price, CPI (consumer price index), as the price terminal, also faced upward pressure in the first two months of this year.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that CPI rose by 2.3% in February from a year earlier, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over January, due to the sharp rise in food and service prices. Among them, the prices of fresh vegetables, pork and aquatic products rose by 30.6%, 25.4% and 3.5% respectively, which affected CPI by about 1.51 percentage points, accounting for 65.7% of the year-on-year increase.

But Chen Jia, an analyst at Changjiang Securities (000783, stock bar), believes that although livestock and poultry prices are expected to continue to rise in the later period, it is difficult to continue to push CPI to a high level.

Chen Jia cited three reasons: First, the price of fresh vegetables declined in the late stage or gradually. After March, as the weather warms up, the production and transportation of fresh vegetables will gradually return to normal, and prices will also fall.

Second, pork prices will gradually narrow year-on-year growth. Pork prices in February last year were the lowest in the year, which led to a bigger year-on-year increase in meat prices in February this year. However, meat prices began to keep rising in March last year, so the latter will gradually narrow down.

Third, grain prices, mainly corn, are expected to fall further, thus lowering CPI growth as a whole.

This hedging effect can also be seen from the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture. Monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that in the 9th week of 2016 (February 29-March 6, 2016, the same below), "National Wholesale Price Index of Agricultural Products (000061, Share Bars)"